My first thought? Ooh, what fun! It's like war games, but real, and available to the public! Honestly, I'm still stuck on that one, it doesn't seem like it can be taken seriously yet, and on the surface the article states that the US is officially not taking it seriously either. Which is funny, because we were in a Cold War with Russia for forty years; there are unquestionably Russian minds that haven't changed yet, and the country is still unpredictable, and seems maybe a little unstable. They definitely haven't lost their pride, and are nursing a bruised ego. But their economy has given them a bit of a boost, and they have a strong, popular leader. Putin, of course, though unofficially. Medvedev is universally considered a puppet leader.
The question now is, how do they regain the international respect they once had? Through warfare and aggression? Maybe later, but right now that would be a lonely war that they aren't ready for. Were they testing the waters, seeing what kind of reaction they'd get in Georgia? We'll find out when they make their eventual move.
I believe right now they have a more subtle strategy. They're simultaneously strengthening their alliances with Cuba and Venezuela, and positioning themselves as a threat to the US. Goading us on. If they could be seen as a rival to the US for supremacy again, many USA-haters might choose to rally around their flag, inciting another Cold War. And with their economy relatively up and ours relatively down, who knows how it might end up.
Happily, our government seems to recognize that. Consider how jumpy we get whenever we see a threat to US supremacy. And Russia right in our backyard, talking with the neighbors who keep rabble-rousing with America hanging in effigy? No, we wouldn't ignore that. Rather, we're pretending we don't see them. That way, we don't give them the recognition as our adversary that they're shooting for.
And that's all I'm fairly sure of. But then there's sheer speculation...
What will Russia do if we keep acting like we're ignoring them? Maybe they'll act like a jealous sibling and clamor for more attention by escalating the threat to the point where we'd look impotent if we kept ignoring them (I actually think the bluff is already pretty transparent, but for the sake of argument...). That might take an act of outright aggression... a minor skirmish between battleships, an anti-American summit featuring Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran... anything as obvious as that would get our attention, but would also rally all our old allies around us again. Maybe they'd be more subtle, and keep finding new ways to get under our skin without seeming to act dangerous. They could raise the price of the oil they sell us, or boost trade among anti-American nations. They could start renovating their military... not growing it, just fixing it. They could increase diplomacy with more Latin American countries. None of this is cause for outright anger, but tensions would certainly start rising. Not quite another Cold War, but then again...
What will they do if we stop ignoring them? Obviously, they would cast us as an aggressor (which would be much easier if they could provoke us with Bush in power, rather than Obama, or if we simply overreact), and having taken care not to be overly aggressive themselves, they could develop a convincing case. Potentially, they could neutralize the United Nations and regain their luster, even if their economy doesn't yet match ours. But who knows? Maybe their confidence will boost their economy. All this would be a risky gambit, and it would be the Cold War, pt. II.
Ok, so the United States is smart enough right now to ignore them. Officially, anyway. Even if they are just trying to provoke us, they are actually improving their relations with our would-be enemies, and it IS actually a potential threat. So what are we unofficially doing? Still ignoring them. And this is important. Regardless of what they're doing, we're better off with more and better allies in the world, whether they'll eventually become the next alliance in a war or simply a more effective trading bloc. And no matter what they do, if we stay calm, friendly, and generous, it will be harder to cast us in a negative light. And thankfully, the Bush administration is keeping a cool head till Obama replaces it.
UPDATE: Is Medvedev actually destined to be only a puppet leader? Maybe not. He recently claimed sole responsibility for Russia, rather than emphasizing his consultation with Putin. We'll see where this goes.
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